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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T02:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T02:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27043/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption near AR 3435 (approximately (N08E17). The liftoff can be seen starting around 2023-09-22T01:28Z in SDO AIA 193/304. There is also an M1.2 flare just after the start of the filament eruption from this AR starting at 2023-09-22T02:25Z, followed by post-eruptive loops best seen in SDO AIA 131/193. Brightening can also be seen in this region in SDO AIA 304. Arrival signature: sharp amplification of magnetic field to 27nT and increases in solar wind speed from ~300 km/s to ~500 km/s, with subsequent increases in density and temperature. Alternatively, this could be the arrival of 2023-09-22T07:36Z CME or the combined arrival of these two CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T19:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-24T20:33Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2023 Sep 23 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 30923
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Sep 2023, 1230UT

Coronal mass ejections: A wide CME with angular width around 90 degrees was
first seen by LASCO-C2 at 02:24 UTC on 22 September. The CME was related
to the M1.2 flare from  NOAA AR 3435. The CME speed was estimated to be
around 730 km/s, with the bulk of the material directed to the NE. Since
the source is located close to disk center, an impact at Earth can be
expected on 24 September(this ICME will probably interact with the one from
21 September on its way to the Earth).

Lead Time: 37.25 hour(s)
Difference: -0.68 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-09-23T06:37Z

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